As the second quarter of 2026 approaches, the global vitamins market is navigating a landscape reshaped by the military conflicts in the Middle East, shifting trade policy, evolving logistics patterns, and ongoing changes in supply and demand dynamics across key nutrients. Recent geopolitical developments have affected global trade flows and logistics and certain carriers have adjusted routes away from traditional passages, extending transit times on some lanes and increasing operational costs.. What had been a gradual return to Suez routes earlier in the year has now reversed abruptly, with ocean carriers withdrawing newly reinstated services and diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. This rerouting adds approximately 10–14 days to major east–west lanes and has tightening vessel capacity and increasing operational costs at a time when vitamin inventories were already low across several regions.
The sector is also facing rising cost pressures as oil prices jumped more than 10% in early Asian trading after warnings to avoid transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Because most vitamin production relies on energy‑intensive chemical synthesis, higher crude prices can lift manufacturing and transportation costs across nearly all vitamin categories. Rising risk on key feedstocks such as methanol, sulfur, propylene, and ammonia has prompted several global chemical producers to issue supply‑risk notifications, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile operating environment.
In the U.S., there have been ongoing policy discussions and legal proceedings regarding tariff authorities. Companies should monitor official notices and consult advisors for current applicability to their categories. Following the Supreme Court’s decision invalidating tariff authority under IEEPA, the U.S. has replaced all IEEPA‑based duties—including the fentanyl‑related tariff previously reduced from 20% to 10%—with a temporary 10% global import surcharge under Section 122, effective for 150 days, this could increase to 15%, depending on the actions of the President but it is subject to review in the Courts. Importantly, pharmaceutical ingredients, including vitamins, remain exempt, helping preserve cost stability for the sector even as the administration shifts to alternative legal mechanisms to maintain tariff pressure.
Based on the above-mentioned developments, we expect a Q2 vitamin market with potential increasingly restricted offerings and mostly firming prices as a reaction, considering inventories in several key vitamins already depleted and freight networks experiencing extended transit times and service interruptions, some market participants may seek earlier coverage given extended transit times and planning uncertainty. Availability and pricing could be firmer in certain regions depending on logistics and maintenance schedules.
Vitamin E opens the quarter in a firm and supply‑tight position, with both Chinese and non‑Chinese origins showing constrained availability. Inventories in North America sit at lower‑than‑usual levels, and producers have limited incremental volumes. Seasonal maintenance in China, an extended regulatory shutdown at a German producer, earlier outages, and a delay of new market entrants contribute to a landscape where some producers reportedly adjusted quotation activity, supporting a continued firm trend.
Vitamin A also carries a stable outlook but with prices of established suppliers at higher level, especially for EU origin products that seem to be tighter than expected, likely partially driven by an extended regulatory shutdown at a German producer. With Q2 coverage only partially secured in several regions and a large Chinese player temporarily suspending quotations, the market remains stable for now but could tighten if buyers enter late or if further supply gaps emerge.
Vitamin D3 producers remain active in offering, buyers are generally well covered, and competitive pressure persists. Demand signals suggest a continuation of cautious purchasing behavior, keeping the tone stable.
For Vitamin K3 (MNB), Chinese prices are trending higher, with K3 MNB offers firming in response to recent increases seen in the vitamin B3 / nicotinamide market. New shipment pricing may reflect recent input‑cost changes. Overall K3 supply remains ample in China, while non‑Chinese availability is still limited, with at least one producer pausing output until conditions improve.
Vitamin C continues in its established pattern of oversupply. However, despite no indications of tightness, trade reports indicated recent list‑price adjustments by some producers due to current market situation.
Across the B‑complex, performance varies by molecule:
B1 (Thiamine) starts Q2 in tight territory with limited spot availability and a firm tone when uncovered demand appears. B3 (Niacin) also remains firm, with reduced spot offers, paused quotations, driven by continued heavy headwinds in connected herbicide markets – including the upcoming closure of the last Western paraquat production site in the UK announced by Syngenta on March 4th – which is forcing producers to prioritize their efforts on B3 to move back toward breaking even. Both B1 and B3 now face added cost risk from methanol, a key upstream input. China appears not to be self‑sufficient in methanol and relies on imports for a material portion of its needs, one of the main supplier countries being Iran. With the Middle East conflict disrupting trade and limiting methanol shipments from Iran, supply is tightening and prices are rising. If disruptions persist, higher methanol costs could intensify production pressure for both molecules.
B2 (Riboflavin) shows regional divergence: availability is tightening in Europe, giving the market a stable‑to‑firm tone, while North American conditions remain steadier as tariff normalization reshapes U.S.–Canada parity.
B5 (Calpan) remains well supplied. However, despite no indications of tightness several producers have announced material price increases in China in the last days.
B6 (Pyridoxine) shows a stable trend after a period of softness driven by sustained competitive offers and sufficient supply.
B7 (Biotin) trends stable‑to‑soft. Production has resumed, keeping supply steady, and no major changes are expected soon. The outlook remains bearish, especially with a new entrant adding to an already oversupplied market.
B9 (Folic Acid) remains elevated and stable, with producers keeping a steady stance after earlier increases linked to raw‑material and upstream pressures.
B12 maintains overall stability, though with the familiar split between UV-grade firmness due to isolated supply constraints and softer conditions for HPLC-grade where availability is more robust. Region‑specific regulatory factors continue to create clear pricing separation.
