Vitamin Market Overview – 2025 Q4 Outlook

In brief

• As summer of 2025 ends and Q4 approaches, conditions are mixed—some vitamins remain oversupplied and weak, while others are tightening and showing signs of recovery.
• Buyers are balancing between staying short to capture price softness and securing coverage to hedge against delays or sudden price movements.

In the fat-soluble vitamin segment, there was the anticipated lifting of the Force Majeure by a European producer. For Vitamin E, it didn’t change market dynamics, as limited volumes were cautiously offered. Prices continue to soften, with Chinese-origin offers coming in lower, while non-Chinese sources maintain a premium due to tighter availability. Buyers are generally cautious, avoiding too long exposure, despite the recent price stabilization in China and lead times remain a key factor in procurement strategy.

The Vitamin A market has yet to gain traction. The return of a European producer has not shifted dynamics meaningfully. While some offers are slightly lower, high production costs make a significant price drop unlikely as it appears that current market prices are below all major players’ production costs. Supply is steady, and the highly anticipated launch of a new Chinese producer outside China (and at scale) appears to be significantly delayed.

Vitamin D3 remains difficult to read. Prices vary widely depending on producer strategies and, in North America, the import codes applied. Canada prices remain higher due to a narrower base of approved suppliers. In Europe, supply is relatively tight, and Chinese expansion plans have been delayed until mid-2026, limiting expectations for near-term relief. For now, price offers remain highly variable. Bookings are happening at 30-40 Euro or Dollar range but hand to mouth. Higher prices are often offered but are unlikely to result in bookings. The outlook remains stable. Vitamin K3 prices are stabilizing at low levels, with key producers generating profit from other parts of the value chain. Chinese material dominates global supply, but modest growth and aggressive pricing from non-Chinese producers has triggered competitive responses. Buyers are keeping a close eye, especially with a chromium-free form expected soon, though the economics of this new process remain unclear.

Not all vitamins are steady. Vitamin C remains locked in oversupply, with prices deeply depressed despite long shutdown announcements from producers. No clear signs of recovery have emerged. In contrast, Vitamin B1 is moving in the opposite direction. After dipping in the last 2 months after a strong 18-month upward movement, prices have now rebounded sharply, driven by increases from Chinese producers and the full impact of U.S. internal tariffs. With cheaper local prices no longer available, an upward pressure is expected to continue.

Other B-vitamins show a spectrum of trends. For Vitamin B2, the market gap between EU region and non-EU continues to widen. New entrants are aggressively competing for market share outside Europe (where competition is constrained by regulatory developments), leading to strong price decreases and buyers securing longer-term positions. Vitamin B3, by contrast, remains volatile. After strong decreases in the last months, prices have started materially recovering in China driven by fundamentals related to the non-targeted herbicide market outlook, leading several large buyers to cover longer positions after a long period of hand-to-mouth buying. These fundamentals are expected to drive a re-normalization of the market towards higher price levels, last seen at the end of 2024.

Vitamin B5 pricing continues to soften, though signs suggest the floor may be nearby. With tariffs driving up landed costs, the gap is narrowing, and further declines are unlikely. New producers are fighting to gain market share and push out smaller players. Buyers remain cautious but may need to adjust strategies if stability holds. Vitamin B6 is also steady after a period of softening driven by low demand and aggressive sales. New entrants may disrupt the balance, while global supply remains steady. Low prices are curbing expansion, with one Chinese supplier scaling back growth plans.

For Biotin (Vitamin B7), prices are stable at current levels, supported by tariffs and limited spot activity as most buyers are already covered for Q4. New capacity is expected later this year, which could weigh on an already oversupplied market and add a bearish tone to the outlook. Vitamin B9, or folic acid, surged in late 2024 and early 2025 but has since come down slowly to levels from 30 to mid-30 Euro or Dollar. Supply constraints from leading producers could, however, lead to a slight price increase. Vitamin B12 pricing is firming slightly. Tariffs on Chinese imports, rising FOB China costs, and logistics are all adding pressure. Inventories have softened the impact, but as new shipments replace old stock, prices are expected to climb further. In Europe, where competition is constrained due to regulatory developments, prices appear to remain stable at higher levels.

Conclusion

Besides some exceptions (vitamin D3, B1, B9) most vitamin prices have evolved to lower levels over the last few months and some of them have entered loss-making territories. US tariffs – still in place as Annex II remains valid for non-Chinese origin – will probably lead to some further change in export destinations, creating oversupply in those re-routed destinations while potential shortages in the US market on the other hand. China’s internal dominant position as largest producer creates a growing dependency on their supply to the rest of the world. Buyers should take that into account when making buying decisions as varying lead times out of China could become disruptive to the buyer’s operations. Meanwhile China has started to investigate ways of curbing oversupply in many industries, like they have recently announced for example in the solar panel and electric vehicle industry. The question is whether this trend will also spread to the vitamin industry